1. there are few habits that I’d like to cultivate in the new year:
    • FTO, figuring things out:
      • is there enough data that would allow me to draw my conclusion
      • can I device a test to generate information
      • proof of concept
      • can the problem be approached from a different angle
      • what must be true that would lead up to my observation
    • TTT, think things through. An action is taken only if the following criteria is met:
      • I know the worst case scenario. while it is not preferable, but it would not be too much of a blow.
      • if I can’t avoid the risk, are there tactics I can use to minimize it?
      • what are the consequences if I don’t take the risk
      • do I have a full scenario analysis
        Last night I was listening to Vamsi Mootha , Rajpaul Attariwala, and Rajpaul Attariwala They are truly impressive people. Something jumps out of their interviews, about the way they speak. There is a sense of patience and structure to it. As if every sentence they uttered is part of a larger scheme. Their patience seems stems from the confidence that they can articulate themselves to the extend they want to, and they don’t really mind if you disagree with them. That’s how I want to speak.
    • SLT, second level thinking
      • there is more information in what is not said than does what is said
      • if there is a known fixed mechanism, can I usurp it for other purposes
      • can a sentence become more succinct
    • Mental Tools
      • Contingency Table
      • Fermilization
      • Induction (suppose it is true)
      • Extreme Cases
      • See the gradient, one step at a time
      • the hidden possibilities
      • detachment, see things in its entirety
      • taxonomy
      • Is there omitted variable, such as time, scale, extend
      • is there a balance to be stroke or a fine line to be walked, instead of the options presented
    • statistical thinking. it requires one to see multiple scenarios and assign a probabilistic to it. Something to be cultivated.
    • go to primary source of information such as practitioner or research papers. For information to spread, it usually has to be merged into a narrative at the expense or accuracy.
  2. there are things to be managed. Health, Finance, Psychological Wellbeing, Attention. I’d like to accumulate/experiments with more tips that works for me. For these things to be managed, I think the key is not to put all your hope and effort into one basket. Complicated system have multiple pathways.
  3. Finance is essentially decoupling oneself from the main cycles. The predominant way to accomplish this is through being in higher stratum of society. Such that every resources accumulate through you first. That can’t be the only way to decouple right?It would be interesting to think about the alternative path leading to the same outcome. Information might play a key role in it. How to make sure I have good access to good quality data?
  4. A major breakthrough this year is my understanding of statistics. At a microscopic level, there are equations governing exact interaction of molecules. To derive the dynamics of that system, the multi-body dynamics would usually involve too many parameters to be useful. Enters statistics. From a macroscopic level, a difference can be observed via the numerical measure of the distribution. This macroscopic view almost render the microscopic governing equations optional. Adjustment of distributional parameters is almost in the same vein as adjusting proportion of parameters of a system.
  5. A lot concepts I find hard to grasp has become easy to me now. It is a good thing, when I look back, I see a moron in my previous self. If time is a series of progress like this, what would the person be at the end of this journey? wouldn’t it be easier if I go directly there? what are the most advanced mental tool that can sharpen my thinking?
  6. There has been quite a few “Javert Moment” this year. Carbohydrate turns out to be bad for us, yet it was recommended as a pillar of our diet; Grace under pressure, gentalness, etiquette, things like that should be part of female education, the conservative value system has its merit; the doctors I trusted subscribed opium to me without my knowledge.
  7. My thinking seems to progress as such: reacting with one action (one step at a time)-> the high leverage step for that system-> a sequence of steps -> dynamically planning my way, observing the feedback from each step.

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