I want to write down the strategy an investigator used to manage his risk exposure when exploring the unknown. The question posed to him was how does he decide what to investigate?
His answer is that one should have a portforlio approach to investigations, and a good exit strategy to manage the risks. Maybe for certain amount of time, you should be able to see certain result, if not, then it is time to devote resources to other lines of inquiry.
Should I to add to his strategy, I would say there should be people investigation on the opposite side of the story. One of those would have to be right after a while, and at that point, devote all resources to one side.