The chasm between scientists and anti-vaccine people seems to get wider. Scientsts churn out data, buring money along the way, while those data lands on the deaf ears of anti-vaccers. So what is the solution? I think a financial product might help.

Both sides are talking over each other. The anti-vaccine people would say that, look at the adjuvants, aluminum salt, isn’t it true that people with degenerative brain disease is show to have more salt in it? Then the scientst would show them data suggesting that the distribution does not change after vaccination.

I think it is wrong to dismiss the conern over injecting foreigh stuff into the body. Complexity means non-liner and shit happens. There is a possibility that current methodology of analysing stuff can’t capture everything. That is a valid concern. The scientists should have just sold it as a bet. While it is true that there are risks involved with any kind of vaccine, the potential loss of not taking that risk is even greater. So the value of vaccine does not lie its absolute risk profile but in the relative one. I think the solution for this lies in acknowledge there are risks involved and just develop a financial product for it.

For instance the flu vaccine. Let us say that one in a million people would get severe anaphylactic shock towards the injected material. Then a one against one million bet should be sold alongside the vaccine. But of course there are difficult when it comes to administering such a bet, how do you know that the side effect is caused by the vaccine? for how long? Those probably explaine why no such product exist. But sure it is a good idea.

Also it is just a fun exercise in terms of risk management:

  1. It is stupid to reject things who offer relative value, even in absolute terms, it means you take on a risk.
  2. When th at risk is unavoidable, always think of ways to hedge it. If you unfortunately have to take on the negative effect, is there things you can do before hand to set the scene such that you can benefit it in the mean time.

I do think blockchain related technology can provide some handle in generating product for this kind of risk taking.